Whether we like it or not, it’s happening.
Whether it’s in our workplaces, on the streets, or in our homes…
Autonomous humanoid robots will wander amongst us.
There has been an explosion of development this year in the sector, with all the major players licensing or building a neural network to act as the robot’s “brain.”
This, and a lot of vision-based training, is what will give this new category of consumer and industrial electronics their general-purpose capabilities, which will provide wide utility in enterprise, health care, and home settings.
Institutional capital can clearly see the progress being made. It no longer takes imagination to see the potential. And any back-of-the-napkin calculations all end up in the same place… a multi-trillion market opportunity.
As a result, there is no shortage of capital for investment, and there is an incredible thirst for both venture capital rounds and IPOs in this sector.
Last week, China-based Unitree announced its plan to prepare for an IPO in China in the fourth quarter at around a $7 billion valuation.
This came as a surprise to many who have been following the company, as Unitree just raised shy of $100 million at a $1.67 billion valuation this summer.
That’s more than a 4X increase in valuation in just a few months. I suspect Unitree will get that, and more, on the IPO before the end of the year.
Unitree is backed by some very powerful institutional investors in China, in addition to major China-backed corporate backers like Geely, Alibaba, Tencent, and China Mobile. Its sense of urgency to scale is palpable, as it needs a whole lot more capital in its race to compete against U.S. robotics companies, especially Tesla.
Unitree is largely duplicating the playbook used by BYD to compete against Tesla. Last year, BYD sold 1.71 million EVs versus Tesla’s 1.79 million EVs. They did it by producing EVs with lower quality and performance, but at much cheaper prices.
The BYD Seagull is BYD’s best-selling EV, which retails for less than $10,000, a market segment that Tesla has shown no interest in competing in.
Unitree shared some interesting details about its business in preparation for its IPO. Specifically, 65% of its revenues are coming from its quadruped robots, and 30% comes from sales of its humanoid robots.
Unitree Go1 Quadruped Robot | Source: Unitree
Shown above is Unitree’s Go1 quadruped robot, the more advanced Go2, which looks very similar and can be purchased for as little as $2,800.
Unitree’s quadruped robots look remarkably similar to the Boston Dynamics Spot quadruped shown below.
Boston Dynamics’ Spot | Source: Boston Dynamics
Boston Dynamics originally released Spot almost a decade ago, in 2016, and it was made available for lease then. And in 2020, Spot was made available more widely for commercial sales.
Boston Dynamics was a clear leader in the industry more than a decade ago, before most of today’s robotics companies were even formed.
Boston Dynamics was acquired by Google back in 2013, then Softbank acquired it from Google in 2017, and then Hyundai Motor acquired it from Softbank in 2021.
What a missed opportunity.
Google had an asset that it could have leveraged into a new category of consumer electronics, one that it uniquely positioned for data surveillance on consumers, which is the entire foundation of Google’s business. Perhaps we should be thankful that Google decided to sell back in 2017.
It could be Boston Dynamics going public now rather than Unitree, but that’s unlikely given that it is a subsidiary of Hyundai Motors.
In preparations for its IPO, Unitree has been making obvious efforts to position itself as not being a state-controlled entity. In its own words…
Unitree has always been a civilian robotics company… Since its establishment, Unitree Robotics has been committed to the application of high-performance general-purpose robots in different industries within the civilian field…
The company has been working hard to overcome the public relations disaster when it got “caught” having a backdoor for surveillance in some of its products. This was a matter we explored this summer in The Bleeding Edge – They’re Watching You.
While quadruped robots will find widespread utility with certain kinds of industrial, manufacturing, utilities, and security applications, the real battle will be fought over humanoid robots.
Humanoid robots are unique in that they are being designed with the same kind of motor skills and physical capabilities as a human being – meaning that they will be able to do what we do.
Unitree’s G1 is priced from $16,000, compared to an expected price of $25,000 for Tesla’s Optimus.
Unitree G1 Humanoid Robot | Source: Unitree
A prototype of Tesla’s version 3 of Optimus was recently posted making rounds in a Tesla office. Musk said that version 3 will be “exquisite” and will be the model that will enter into commercial production.
He also said that from a hardware perspective, version 3 of Optimus will have everything that it needs. And just like a Tesla, the primary focus is on the software, which will be simple to upgrade with automatic software downloads over wireless networks.
Tesla Prototype of Version 3 Optimus | Source: Marc Benioff
I can feel it. The signs are everywhere. And it’s electric.
The entire industry is geared up with capital and the technology to transform the “beings” that will improve the way we live and work.
It’s happening now, and whether it is Unitree, Tesla, Apptronik, Agility Robotics, Figure AI, 1X Technologies, or any other, they’re all in the race for general-purpose robotics and the multi-trillion-dollar market.
And if we needed any more proof that this is happening, an SEC filing just revealed the largest insider transaction I can remember…
The filing disclosed that Elon Musk himself purchased 2.57 million shares of Tesla, nearly $1 billion worth, as a symbolic indication of how confident he is in Optimus.
Musk has stated that ultimately, he believes that 80% of Tesla’s value will come from intelligent humanoid robots. He just put his money where his mouth is…
Optimus was front and center in Tesla’s Master Plan IV, which was published at the beginning of the month.
Source: Tesla
It’s happening and it’s imminent. The key technologies have converged, and we’re on the cusp of widespread commercialization. This isn’t something that is years away. It will be measured in months.
Get ready to say “hello” to our new friends…
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