Elon Musk's Biggest Fear Isn't Selling Enough Teslas


By Keith Kohl, Energy & Capital, Monday, June 7

Elon Musk made a bold move three weeks ago.

In one stunning tweet, the Tesla magnate announced that his company was no longer accepting purchases in Bitcoin.

To be fair, I wasn’t sure who was willing to pay for their Model 3 in Bitcoin to begin with. Tesla itself generated more than $100 million in revenue after trimming its crypto position and still holds a sizable position.

Musk even made a point in that same announcement that Tesla wouldn’t be selling any of its Bitcoin and that his primary issue was with the dirty energy used to mine it.

Love him or hate him, it was certainly a rational PR decision to distance himself from the massive amounts of coal used to power those mining rigs and transactions.

For a little perspective on exactly what’s going on, consider that 75% of Bitcoin mining is done in China.

Ah, but China is the land of renewable energy, isn’t it?

After all, the Chinese government has powerful goals in place to cut CO2 emissions by 65% compared with its 2005 levels, and President Xi Jinping even recently announced China’s ambitious plan of being carbon-neutral by 2060.

Surely that’ll alleviate Musk's concerns over coal.

Look, I’m all for wishful thinking. However, when it comes to China and its energy consumption, all I’ll say is that I’ll believe it when I see it.

Unfortunately, about 62% of China’s electric power is generated from coal.

That’s a mind-numbing amount of energy to replace every year — approximately 4,554,800 GWh of it!

But you and I both know this isn't the first time Musk has cut ties with controversial issues.

Last year, Tesla reported on its Battery Day event that the company would build its vehicles with cobalt-free cathodes.

We’ve talked about Tesla’s 36-pound blood metal curse many times over the last few years, and there’s no question that cobalt has been the dirty little secret behind the EV revolution.

Of course, Musk conveniently failed to offer a time frame for when his cobalt-free batteries would be used.

Lip service pledges aside, the biggest obstacle on the road ahead for Tesla isn’t cobalt.

It’s not selling cars for Bitcoin either.

No, the most pressing issue for Musk and his friends is over the most vital ingredient in their EVs.

Lithium.

And make no mistake, there’s a supply crunch coming that has Tesla and every other car company on the planet with dreams of an all-electric fleet of vehicles scrambling to secure their future lithium supply — right now!

The Reality Behind Tomorrow’s Lithium Supply

Look, it’s no secret that global lithium demand is going to soar higher over the next decade.

Within four years, the world’s annual lithium consumption is projected to more than triple to 1 million tonnes.

By 2030, some estimates suggest that lithium demand will grow 10-fold compared with current levels.

While the short term may be covered, companies like Tesla will find themselves squeezed for supply over the long run.

Perhaps that’s why auto companies are scurrying to secure their own lithium supply directly with miners. It’s also why we weren’t shocked to learn that Tesla was planning to build its very own lithium hydroxide refinery right next door to its Texas Gigafactory, where the company will be rolling out its line of Cybertrucks.

If you’re asking yourself why Musk is much more fearful of a lithium supply crunch than his competition, it’s because Tesla used more lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) last year than the next three-largest EV makers — combined!

That alone leaves Musk with a frightening supply picture going forward.

Fortunately for him, there IS hope.

Right now, there aren’t many options for lithium-starved car companies. And no matter how you slice it, EV companies like Tesla, Ford, or any company that requires lithium-ion batteries for its products is at the whim of countries like China.

Keep in mind that China absolutely dominates the lithium-ion battery supply chain and refines most of the world’s battery-grade lithium.

Imagine what would happen if one company threatened to disrupt this lithium monopoly...

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